Preview of Western Conference Finals

BATTLE IN THE MIDWEST

The two best teams in the Western Conference made it look pretty easy to get to this point. The Spurs and Thunder were a combined 16-1 in the first two rounds of the playoffs. San Antonio cruised through Utah and Los Angeles (Clippers) winning three out of four by double-digits in each series. The Thunder have shown they can win games at the end with their young stars. Kevin Durant has already made three game-winning shots in the playoffs. Russell Westbrook and James Harden have shown they can be trusted down the stretch.  Everyone figured it would be these two teams hooking up in the Western Conference Finals and we all got our wish. There are going to be some exciting match-ups to pay attention to that will decide who moves on to the NBA Finals. 

                                       

POINT GUARD 

MATCH-UP

          

This is going to be a match-up that plays a huge role in deciding this series. Tony Parker is having his best year as a pro. Russell Westbrook has emerged as a top-five point guard in the game. Westbrook has matured dramatically since last season. Last year, during the playoffs, Westbrook struggled. This year has been a different story for the fourth-year veteran. Westbrook is shooting nearly 50% from the field in the playoffs, compared to 39% last year. This is a very intriguing match-up that is going to play a significant role in who moves on. 

Tony Parker was one of the top players in the NBA this year and was the main reason why the Spurs finished with the best record in the West. Parker finished fifth in the MVP voting this year, averaging 18 PPG and over 7 APG. This was the first time in Parker's 11-year career that he averaged at least seven dimes a game. He has been the main cog in the Spurs recent 18-game winning streak. Only nine other teams have ever won 18-games in a row in NBA history. Six of the nine won it all. (14 of 18 games during win streak have been double-digit wins.) During the regular season match-ups between these two teams, Parker made a huge difference. San Antonio won two out of three against Oklahoma City and Parker averaged 33.5 PPG and 8 APG in the two wins. However, in the one loss Parker only put up 4 points. If the Spurs want to beat the Thunder, Parker will need to average close to 20 and 8. He needs to make sure and force Westbrook to burn a lot of energy on the defensive end. Parker told the media earlier this week that he is going to attack Westbrook and go right at him. He said Westbrook had it easy going against Dallas and the Lakers. The Spurs have one thing on their mind, and that is to win their fifth NBA Championship, but it will not happen if Tony Parker does not lead the way for the Spurs.

Russell Westbrook has shown tremendous improvement in his decision making this season. Last year, during the playoffs, he forced up a lot of bad shots that cost his team a chance at competing in the Finals. He looked lost most of the time during the playoffs in 2011. Wow, how things have changed for the former UCLA star. This season, he has matured into a point guard that knows when to take over and when to get guys involved. A lot of critics say he shoots too much for a point guard. The Thunder need Westbrook to be aggressive, because outside of Durant and James Harden, he is the only other guy that can create his own shot. The Thunder would of not had a chance to steal game four in Staples Center if Westbrook did not force the tempo in the fourth quarter. During an important stretch in the 4th, Westbrook scored nine straight for Oklahoma City, which allowed Durant the opportunity at the end. Westbrook finished fifth in the NBA in scoring this year averaging 23.6 PPG. Westbrook also put up over 5 APG and nealry 5 RPG this season. He is a point guard that can do it all. The one issue with Westbrook this year has been turnovers. He averaged nearly 4 turnovers per game this year. (3.6 turnovers/per game, 6th most in the NBA.) During the playoffs he has improved tremendously averaging under 2 per/game. If Westbrook can cut down on the turnovers, this gives Oklahoma City a huge chance at knocking off the best team in the West. If Westbrook can average close to 25, 5, and 7 the Thunder could very well be hosting the NBA Finals. Most importantly, Westbrook needs to continue at his rate of less than two turnovers during this series.  

KEVIN DURANT VS. THE POP

Gregg Popovich showed just how great of a coach he is against the Los Angeles Clippers. Kevin Durant showed how deadly he can be at the end of games against the Los Angeles Lakers. Popovich showed how to shut down a top point guard in the game. Chris Paul averaged 12.7 PPG, 4.5 turnovers/game, and shot under 50% from the field in the second round of the playoffs. Yes, Chris Paul was banged up, but Popovich definitely played a role in shutting down one of the best players in the game. Their defense was stellar on stopping the Clippers pick and roll. They will see a lot more pick and rolls against the Thunder. Things will be different this time around for Pop though. He did not have to deal with the likes of shutting down the back-to-back-to-back scoring champion of the NBA. Kevin Durant is one of the top 3 players in the game right now. It is going to be crucial for Kevin Durant to be highly involved down the stretch and Popovich is going to try and make the other guys beat him in crunch time. This is going to be a crucial factor in the series. Durant has shown he is absolute money down the stretch in these playoffs. He has knocked in three game-winners and all of them have come in crucial games. Dallas was trying to steal game one in the first round, but Durant was having none of it. He hit a 20-foot floater, with under two-seconds remaining, to give OKC a 99-98 victory. In the second round, the Lakers were trying to steal game two, up by one with under :30 seconds, then Durant hit a 7-footer from the baseline over Gasol and Bynum with :18 seconds left. That gave OKC a 76-75 lead as they held on for a 77-75 victory. Durant scored eight of the final 12 points for the Thunder down the stretch to ensure a 2-0 lead. Mr. Clutch struck again in game four. With the game tied 98-98, the Lakers trying to tie the series at two apeice to steal momentum, Durant pulls up from 25-feet, straight away, nothin' but net. Game! There went the Lakers chances at a 17th NBA Title. Kobe Bryant, the game's best closer, five-time champion, out done at his own game by a 23-year old NBA star. This is the guy that Gregg Popovich is going to have to frustrate. It is near impossible to stop Durant, but if Pop can frustrate the MVP runner-up, the Spurs will have a good chance at moving on. It will not be an easy task as two of the games best defensive coaches, Rick Carlisle and Mike Brown, did not have any success at frustrating Mr. Durant. The five-year superstar from Texas is averaging 27 PPG during the playoffs and has been at his best in the fourth quarter. Durant is averaging 8 PPG in the 4th quarter during the postseason. If Popovich can't come up with a scheme to force the ball out of Durant's hands in the 4th, the Spurs could be in trouble. 

It will be interesting to see how the Spurs attack the leagues scoring champion. Kawhi Leonard will be first up in attempting to stop Mr. Durant. The 6'7" rookie, from San Diego State, will have his hands full trying to shut down Durant. In the Spurs two wins against Oklahoma this season, they held Durant to under 50% shooting, and held him to 2-10 from deep. In the lone Thunder win against the Spurs, Durant shot 5-9 from the floor, and went 10-10 from the free-throw line. It will be crucial for Popovich and the Spurs to force Durant into a jump shooter and keep him off the charity stripe. The Spurs will need to limit Durant's free-throw attempts in this series and make him earn every single one of his points. It is a tough task at hand because of Durant's size. The kid is nearly 7' feet tall and can handle the rock like a point guard. It is very easy for Durant to get whatever shot he wants. It will be important for the Spurs to try and confuse Durant and hope he turns the ball over. Kevin Durant averaged a career high in turnovers this year (3.8 per game) and it was the 3rd highest in the NBA. Unlike his teammate Westbrook, Durant has not cut down on the turnovers in the playoffs. His 3.2 turnovers/per game are the ninth most in the playoffs. The Spurs will need to find a way to force one of the league's most dynamic duos into turnovers, if Popovich wants a chance at winning his fifth ring. 

 SIXTH MAN vs. SIXTH MAN

Manu Ginobili and James Harden will both play a crucial role off the bench in this series. It is almost remarkable how similar these two guy's games are. They both are lefties. They both slither through defenders at ease. They can run the point. They are both versatile players who can do just about anything the coach asks. Manu Ginobili has the experience edge against the third-year pro from Arizona State. Ginobili is a three-time NBA Champion, two-time NBA All-star, and won the 

NBA sixth-man of the year in 2008. James Harden can only say he is one of those things. The beard was awarded the NBA's sixth-man of the year this season. Harden got huge playoff minutes last season during the Thunder's run to the Western Conference Finals. The Jeff Green trade during last years trade deadline was huge for Oklahoma. This allowed for a savvy veteran in Kendrick Perkins to come in, but more importantly, it opened up more minutes for James Harden. He surely has not disappointed. He has played huge for the Thunder in this years playoffs. 

James Harden is putting up 17 PPG, 5 RPG, and 3 APG in the playoffs. He is also averaging two steals/game. James Harden is the Thunder's most versatile player. The kid can do it all. You need him to rebound: check. You need him to run the point: check. You need him to be a scorer: check. You want him to defend the opponent's best perimeter player: check. He is a perfect tool in Head Coach Scott Brook's toolbox. In game four against the Dallas Mavericks, the beard showed how dynamic he can be. In the series clinching game against the reigning champs, Harden went for 29 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, and one block. In the fourth quarter of that game he took over. He scored 15 points and dished out 3 dimes as OKC sent Dallas fishing. If James Harden can be the force he has throughout the season, and the playoffs, the Thunder could be playing for an NBA Championship. 

Manu Ginobili has not been the force he usually is in these playoffs. He is only shooting 40% from the floor, 25% from deep, and averaging only 11 points/game. However, the Spurs are such a deep team that it has not cost San Antonio during Ginobili's mediocre play. This has to change in this series though. The Spurs are going up against a young up-and-coming team in OKC. They are a different animal than the Jazz and Clippers. Now they are going up against the Bull and have to deal with the horns. Ginobili is having his worst statistical output in the playoffs since his rookie season. Ginobili is going to have to match the play of Harden in this series if the Spurs want to move on to the NBA Finals. This match-up of the bat killer (click link to see Manu Ginobili vs. bat) vs. the beard will play dividends in determining who comes out of the Western Conference. 

DEPTH vs. BIG 3

This series will be over if Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden don't all play great basketball. San Antonio is too good of a team to lose to a two-man show. There is a reason why this team is one of ten teams in NBA history to win at least 18-games in a row. They are loaded with the perfect amount of veterans and youngsters. Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Boris Diaw, Matt Bonner, and Stephen Jackson are a nice mix of veterans. Kawhi Leonard, Gary Neal, Tiago Splitter, 

Danny Green, and DeJuan Blair add some youth to make this a very dangerous San Antonio Spurs team. During the regular season, 11 Spurs averaged more than 6 points/game. During this postseason, nine Spurs are putting up better than 5 points/game. This is a huge stat because we all know how teams cut down their bench during the playoffs. The Spurs can trust a boat load of different guys to score and it is making defense's looked confused when matching up against the Spurs. You double team Duncan on the block he'll kick it out for a wide open three. If Tony Parker or Manu Ginobili penetrate, forcing a double team, it leads to either a wide open layup or an open three. The Spurs were the best three-point shooting team in the NBA during the regular season. They shot 39% from deep this year and five different Spurs shot better than 40% from long range. During the playoffs, they have been the top 3-point shooting team through two-rounds. They are shooting a remarkable 42% from beyond the arc. Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, Gary Neal, Matt Bonner, Stephen Jackson, and Boris Diaw are all shooting over 40% from deep during the playoffs. If all of the Spurs role players can step up and do their job they have a really good chance to make it to the NBA Finals. If these guys keep knocking down their 3's they are near impossible to beat. 

We all know what the Thunder's game plan is. Get the ball to one of their three-headed monsters. During the playoffs, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden are scoring 67 of the 100 points/game. They have all scored in double-figures in all nine playoff games. If they don't all score in double-figures in this series, they will have no chance. Even if all three of these guys have great games, the Spurs are so deep they can still withstand it. Russell Westbrook and James Harden are both really important players for the Thunder, but Kevin Durant is the guy who carries the weight on his shoulders. If the Thunder want to beat the Spurs, a team with a core group of Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili who have accumulated for10 rings, Kevin Durant will have to lead the way. Durant has emerged into a star during the last couple of years, but this series will be crucial into determining if he is the guy in the NBA. The spot that Kobe Bryant has earned. The spot Dirk Nowitzki earned during last years improbable postseason run. Durant has already gone through both of these former champs in the first two-rounds. Now he will have a chance at dethroning another team that provides championship credentials. Kevin Durant is only 23-years old, but his legacy could start five years earlier than Michael Jordan's did, if, and I mean if, he can lead the Thunder to an NBA Championship. Durant is going to have to do what he did in the first two rounds by showing he is not scared of the moment. Durant wanted to be the guy to knock down the crunch buckets down the stretch, and he is going to have to do this against the best team in the NBA, if he wants to keep his playoff dreams alive.

X-FACTOR

Serge Ibaka and Kawhi Leonard both will have important roles if their teams want to move on. The Thunder need Ibaka to defend the paint. The Spurs thrive when Tony Parker can get in the paint. Ibaka will need to be the enforcer on making Parker think twice about coming to the cup. Serge Ibaka led the NBA in block shots averaging nearly 4 blocks/game. He was named to the NBA All-Defensive first team earlier this week, and his defense has not stopped in these playoffs. His 3.6 blocks/game are tops in the postseason. Kendrick Perkins has been a huge asset to this team because it allows Serge Ibaka to roam the paint and block shots at will. San Antonio was fourth in the NBA this year at scoring in the paint. Oklahoma will have to cut this down if they want to move on. When the Spurs can get easy buckets it opens up the entire floor for the Spurs to be deadly in all phases. Serge Ibaka will be the key in making the Spurs earn every bucket. If he steps up and has a big series on the defensive end it could be the deciding factor. Also, let's not forget this guy can score some points if you need him to. He can knock down the wide open 15-footer and gives his team a lot of second chance opportunities. If Ibaka can be a force on the defensive end, and get close to 10 points/game, it gives the Thunder a really good chance at moving on in these playoffs. 

Kawhi Leonard is such an important player for the Spurs in this series. Gregg Popovich says Leonard reminds him of Bruce Bowen. The rookie will get a chance to prove his coach right in this series, as he will be asked to defend the reigning three-time scoring champ. Leonard is a very athletic 6'7" forward with a 7'3" wingspan. His body frame and athletic ability give him the perfect chance at frustrating Kevin Durant. If Leonard can affect Durant into playing out of his whelm in four, of the potential seven games, it gives the Spurs a golden opportunity at winning their fifth championship in franchise history. Also, Leonard can get it done on the offensive side too. During the regular season Leonard averaged 8 points/game and 5 rebs./game on a very deep San Antonio team. He is putting up the same numbers in the first two-rounds of the playoffs, but his three-point shooting has been huge. He is shooting 45% from deep in the playoffs, and if he keeps up his hot-shooting against OKC, it will be a huge asset. Leonard's main focus in this series is making Durant earn every bucket. If he can frustrate Durant and bring out his inner Bruce Bowen, it will give the Spurs a great shot at representing the Western Conference in the NBA Finals. 

PREDICTION

This is going to be a hard fought series between two of the best teams in the NBA. Turnovers could very well be the deciding factor. During the regular season the Spurs were third best in the NBA averaging only 13.6 turnovers/game. The Thunder were the worst in the NBA averaging 16.3 turnovers/game. However, things have changed during the playoffs. The Thunder have the fewest turnovers among all playoff teams averaging 10.7/game. The Spurs rank fifth averaging 13 turnovers/game. Once again, this is where Russell Westbrook has shown his maturity as one of the league's top point guards in the game. Turnovers will be a huge factor in this series and I think Oklahoma will continue with their recent success in the playoffs keeping good care of the rock. 

Kevin Durant will be too much for San Antonio to handle. Russell Westbrook will be too fast and powerful for the Spurs to contain. James Harden will be too versatile for the Spurs to bottle up. These three guys will be too much for San Antonio. Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins will do a good job bottling up Duncan in the post and containing the Spurs points in the paint. If you can shut down the Spurs scoring in the paint it affects the rest of their game. If Tony Parker penetrates to the lane expect Ibaka or Perkins to let their presences be felt. A lot of people say the Spurs experience will be the deciding factor. I disagree. Oklahoma has guys that have gone through some tough games in the past two postseasons. Also, the addition of Derek Fisher, makes a huge impact on this young team. The five-time champion knows what it takes to win it all and he has been a huge leader for this team since his arrival. His stats might not show it, but that is not the reason why Oklahoma brought D-Fish in. Furthermore, the acquisition of Kendrick Perkins right before the trade deadline last season, gives this team another guy who has been through it all. 

I am not going with the majority in picking the Thunder. The Spurs have been the best team in the NBA since the All-star break. They have won 29 out of 31 games. They are currently riding an 18-game winning streak. They do not make mistakes. They always make the extra pass. They all know their roles. They have home-court in this series. I know I am a little bit crazy not going with the Spurs in this series. I just think Kevin Durant is going to show why he is the best player in the NBA right now. The guy wants the ball at the end so he is responsible for his team either winning or losing. Russell Westbrook and James Harden will present too many problems for San Antonio to handle. I think this series is going to be a very competitive match-up. There are going to be some very close games that come down to the wire in this series. This is where I give the edge to Oklahoma City who has the most clutch player on their team. Kevin Durant's legacy has already started, but after this series, it will be that much more solidified. The Thunder youth movement will be too much for the San Antonio Spurs to handle. 

OKLAHOMA CITY IN 7

-Eastern Conference Finals preview upcoming next week after the Boston/Philly series is over