We have been here before. Lebron James and Dwyane Wade could never get by the Boston Celtics once the big three joined forces before the 2007-08 season. James and Wade were a combined 0-3 in the playoffs vs. Boston before last year. They both tried to single handily will their teams over the big three (and Rondo). James was 0-2 against Boston in the playoffs while with Cleveland, and knew his Cavaliers would never get past the Celtics. You think this played a big part on why he took his talents to South Beach? Hmmmm. OF COURSE! The King made the right decision. Since joining up with his boys, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, guess what their record is against Boston in the playoffs? Ya, you guessed right, a perfect 1-0. Lebron and Wade finally got that Boston monkey off their back. They knocked the Celtics out of the playoffs in five games during the Eastern Conference Semi-finals.
Judging from game one last night, it sure looks like the new
big three will be 2-0 against the old big three. However, it was just one game, and last time I checked this is a best of seven series. Everyone knew Boston
would come out slow in game one and probably end up losing by double-digits.
Unless of course you are Paul Pierce. He said he felt good about his team leading up to game one. (Yeah, this is the same guy who says his sprained left knee
is 100%.) They just finished beating a very good young Philadelphia 76ers team
in seven. Then, they had to jump on a plane Sunday to get ready for game one on
Monday. Not much time off for an old team means one thing: an ugly 48 minutes of basketball. Now
they are settled in Miami and should have a stronger performance in game two. It
will still be hard for the Celtics to steal game two with the way Lebron James
and Dwyane Wade have been playing during Miami’s four-game winning-streak.
During this stretch James is averaging 32.5 PPG, 12.8 RPG, 6.8 APG, 1.5 BPG,
and 1.8 SPG. Wade is putting up 30.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 4.5 APG, 1.3 BPG, and 1.5
SPG. I’d be laughing in Kevin Garnett’s face too if I was putting up insane
numbers like that.
The five technical fouls the Celtics were dealt in game one
had nothing to do with their 93-79 loss. They simply got outplayed and looked
tired. Now that game one is over, let’s take a look at some important match-ups
that will determine how the series plays out.
BATMAN & ROBIN vs. RONDO & THE BIG 3
It was evident leading up to this series that it would be on Lebron James and Dwyane Wade. With Chris Bosh still out indefinitely with his abdominal strain, it is solely on James and Wade. In game one they answered the bell. Wade and James combined for 54 points making 21-35 shots (60%). The C's big four combined for 57 points and struggled from the field. They shot 23-61 combining for a horrific 38% from the floor. Pierce and Allen struggled mildly, combining to shoot 6-25 (24%).
I love how everyone says Lebron James always chokes in the playoffs. Those people don't know what they are talking about. This guy has been money in the playoffs. (Click this if you don't believe me) Yeah, he did not perform well in the NBA Finals last year, but this does not take away from what he has done during his playoff career. This is James seventh year in the post-season and his playoff career stats are: 28.2 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 6.8 APG, 1.7 SPG, and 1 BPG. Not too shabby. The guy shows up in the post-season and he is proving it again this year. Everyone just loves to hate him because of the way he handled "The Decision." Who cares. It was nearly two years ago. Get over it. Everyone makes mistakes and no one is perfect. The guy is arguably the best player in the world, but no one will grant him this until he gets some jewelry. I'll agree with that because you need to win it all before you can mentioned as being one of the best.
Dwyane Wade does not have that same problem. He has a ring. He is a former NBA Finals MVP. If he wants to add to his collection he needs to keep playing the way he has during the last four games. Wade had his worse career playoff game against the Indiana Pacers in game three in the previous round. Wade finished with 5 points on 2-13 shooting. He had as many turnovers as points. Him and Head Coach Erik Spoelstra got into a heated exchange on the bench during a timeout in the 3rd quarter. Everyone was writing off the Heat after they feel behind 2-1 to Indiana. Well, except for the Miami Heat. Since that loss they have played lights out and especially D-Wade. As Wade goes, so goes Miami. We all know Lebron is always going to fill up the stat sheet. If Wade has an off game usually things do not bode well for Miami. If Wade and James keeps this up there is no way Boston will beat them in a seven game series. Wade getting his knee drained after that horrific performance in game three has brought back the real D-Wade.
If Boston wants to win this series it all starts with Rajon Rondo. He is the engine that starts the Oldsmobile for the C's. When he is playing his best, the C's are a very tough team to beat. When you can force Rondo to get out of his comfort zone the rest of the team struggles. Against the 76ers in the semi's, game six and game seven were the blueprint for the C's. In game six, Rondo's stats were: 9 pts., 9 rebs., 6 assists, and 28% from the floor. In game seven, Rondo's stats were: 18 pts., 10 rebs., 10 assists, and 46% from the field. When Pierce fouled out, with just under five minutes left in game seven, Rondo took over. He put the team on his back and scored nine straight leading the C's past the 76ers. He sets the tone for the rest of the team, and more importantly, the other three future Hall of Famers.
Two of the three big three are banged up. Pierce is battling through a sprained MCL and Allen is fighting through a sprained ankle. This makes Rondo an even more important player for the Celtics. Ray Allen is clearly not the same. His 60% from the free-throw line show he is out of his usual rhythm. Paul Pierce can't get the lift off his knee's to be the player he is capable to be. Both of these guys are showing their toughness, but that will not matter one bit if they can't find their rhythm.
Kevin Garnett is arguably playing his best basketball for the Celtics since his first year in Boston. He is putting up 19 and 11 during these playoffs. Since Doc Rivers moved him to center after the All-star break he has been playing amazing basketball. The Celtics are going to need the best Kevin Garnett if they want a chance in this series. They will need the Big Ticket to get at least 20 and 10 every night. More importantly, they need Garnett to be the defensive force he was during their 2008 Championship.
HEAD COACHING: DOC vs. SPOELSTRA
This is where the Celtics have the significant edge in this series. However, with the talent of Lebron and D-Wade, the coaching experience might not be that big of a factor. Especially with the way these two have been playing lately. However, if the game is close down the stretch this is where Rivers' becomes a huge factor for the Celtics. Rivers' is one of the best coaches in the NBA on making in-game adjustments. Erik Spoelstra is a good coach, but when comparing him with Rivers, it is not even close. Doc Rivers is the second best Head Coach in the NBA. Gregg Popovich is easily the top Head Coach in the game since Phil Jackson retired.
A lot of people say Erik Spoelstra does not make that big of an impact for the Heat. I disagree. He preaches one thing: defense. Miami has been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA since he took over before the 2008-09 season. Miami has been the second best defensive team in this category during the playoffs. During the last three seasons Miami has been in the top five in opponent field-goal %. Dwyane Wade was never the defensive player he was until Spoelstra took over. Wade is arguably the best shot blocker among all guards. The guy knows how to get the best out of his team on the defensive end. Game one against Boston was evident of how good Miami is on the defensive end. Boston shot under 40% from the floor and Miami had 11 blocked shots making the Celtics earn every bucket. We will soon find out if this was because the Celtics were tired from their seven-game series against Philly, or if it had more to do with Miami's defense. I really do not think people realize just how good of a defensive player Lebron James is. He is arguably one of the top three defenders in the game. He does it all. Defensive rebounding: check. Block shots: check. Getting in the passing lane causing turnovers: check. You want him to guard your best player, whether you are a guard, forward, or center: check. Spoelstra brings the best out of Lebron on the defensive end. Lebron was a good defender with Cleveland, but with Spoelstra, he has become one of the best in the game. 
Doc Rivers still has the edge in coaching. His experience is a major factor. This is his 12th year being a Head Coach in the league. Spoelstra is currently in his 4th season. If these games are close down the stretch it will be crucial for Rivers to out-duel his counterpart. If he doesn't, there is no way Boston can make this a series. It is obvious Miami has two of the best players on the planet, but Boston still has capable players, so coaching in this series could end up being a factor. If Rivers can't find a way to limit James and Wade this series could be over quick. We all know in this sport the players make the difference, but coaching is still an area that can be crucial in winning and losing. This has arguably been Rivers best year as a Head Coach in his 12-year career. Boston struggled from the start of the season and were two games under .500 at the All-star break. They dealt with injuries all season long, but Rivers still found a way to get the best out of his team to win the Atlantic Division. However, this will soon be forgotten if Boston can not make this a competitive series against Miami.
ROLE PLAYERS
If Miami's role players play well they are near impossible to beat. Heat players not named Lebron James or Dwyane Wade combined for 39 points in game one. This was a huge factor for Miami beating Boston easily in game one. Especially, with Chris Bosh still being out. It is still unclear when Bosh will be returning, if he returns at all, so Miami will need their role players to play well.
Mario Chalmers is a guy who can score for this squad. He is averaging a playoff career high in points and rebounds during the 2012 playoffs. Chalmers is capable of hitting some big shots. We all remember when he hit that three in the NCAA National Championship with 2.1 seconds left against Memphis to send the game to overtime. (3 against Memphis to tie) Chalmers led Kansas to a 2008 National Championship against Derrick Rose's Memphis team. He is not scared of the moment. He sets the tone for Miami's role players. He is a very confident young player who has had his best year in his four-year career.
It will be crucial that Shane Battier keeps up his defensive intensity and knocks down open three's. They need Joel Anthony to continue playing good interior defense to shut down easy points in the paint for Boston. Udonis Haslem has not been the force he usually is in these playoffs, but he showed in game four against Indiana he can still knock down big shots. If Mike Miller and James Jones can come in off the bench and continue to knock down three's, it will be icing on the cake for the Heat.
Boston started this series without their best role player. Avery Bradley quickly became one of the best perimeter defenders in the game this season. His shoulder surgery forced him out of the playoffs. He tried to battle through it, but after his shoulder separated on three different occasions during the playoffs, it was time to shut him down. This puts more weight on the rest of the roster.
The Celtics need Brandon Bass and Mickael Pietrus to step their game up. They combined to shoot 4-12 and scored just nine points in game one. This is not going to get it done for the C's. They need these guys to put up at least 20 combined points if they want a chance. With Pierce and Allen banged up they need some help from their other guys. Boston does not have much help on their bench so it will be crucial for Bass and Pietrus to contribute offensively. During the regular season they combined to average 20 PPG. However, during the playoffs they are putting up 14 PPG. Pietrus is only putting up 3.5 PPG, shooting under 35% from the floor, and shooting 23% from deep. That is not going to get it done for Boston if they want to compete with Miami. Role players usually always determine whether or not a team wins or loses a championship. Dallas had a ton of role players step up last season. Miami didn't. In 2010, the Lakers role players outplayed the Celtics role players. Role players are what make the difference in June. If Miami's role players keep playing like they did in game one they will get by Boston easily, but more importantly, it would give them a good chance to beat the winner of the San Antonio/Oklahoma City series in the NBA finals.
PREDICTION
A lot will be figured out in game two. We will find out if the Celtics are too old to hang with two of the top players in the game. The Celtics are banged up and it is affecting Ray Allen and Paul Pierce tremendously. However, one thing the Celtics have always had is heart. These guys battle. They always go into every game thinking they are going to win. They make the opponents earn it. During these playoffs they have not lost back-to-back games. San Antonio is the only other team in the playoffs that can say that. Boston has been one of the most resilient teams in the game since the big three joined forces. The Celtics need to find a way to keep Wade and James out of the paint. The way to beat Miami is to make them a jump shooting team because they struggle from the perimeter. In game one Miami was 5-25 from long range. Lebron James and Dwyane Wade got to the paint at will in game one and made a huge difference. How bad do the Celtics wish they still had Kendrick Perkins to dish out some hard fouls when Wade and James get in the paint. The lack of size and toughness inside is an issue for the C's. 
Miami has been playing great ball during this four-game stretch and if they keep it up I do not know if anyone can beat them. Even without one of their stars, Chris Bosh, they still are a very dangerous team. With Bosh out, this just allows James and Wade more touches throughout the game. I feel this has made Miami an even more dangerous team. This allows them to be a lot more aggressive and get a better feel for the game. It is still up in the air if Bosh will come back during this series and they might not need him against a banged up Boston team. However, if Miami does advance to the NBA Finals they will definitely need Chris Bosh against a high scoring San Antonio or Oklahoma City team. 
I think Boston is just too banged up at this point of the season to knock off Miami. You can see Paul Pierce struggling to find his shot. He has no lift off the ground with his sprained MCL. Ray Allen just can't get any rhythm in his shot. Not even from the charity stripe. If both of these guys can't find their shot the Celtics might not even win one game. The Celtics are too dependent on Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo right now. They need them to almost match the play of Wade and James with Pierce and Allen banged up. We all know that is not going to happen. James and Wade are two of the best players in the game, and with the way they are playing right now, they are near impossible to stop. 
I feel Boston will find a way to win a game or two, but I do not see them moving on to the NBA Finals. I see Miami winning in five or six. Lebron James and Dwyane Wade would love to knock off Boston in Boston's backyard. After losing to Boston so many times, and especially in close out games at the TD Garden. The relief for James and Wade to hear the Boston fans' silent would be a great accomplishment for these two. This could be the last time we see the big three together in Boston. The Celtics will probably feel like they underachieved only winning one championship. However, it could have been more if it wasn't for injuries. Garnett missed the 2009 playoffs with a knee injury. Kendrick Perkins tore his ACL in game six of the NBA Finals with his Celtics up 3-2 against the Lakers. Too bad injuries are part of the game and this stuff happens. I see Boston giving everything they have against the Heat, but it simply won't be enough. Injuries will once again cost Boston a chance at holding up banner number 18.
MIAMI HEAT IN 6
-NBA Finals preview coming soon
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