UFC 162: In-Depth Preview & Predictions

By Zack Poff

Once Saturday night gets here it will end a three week dry spell of UFC events and what better way to start the second half of 2013 than with Anderson "The Spider" Silva (33-4, 16-0). When he enters the octagon for the 17th time at the MGM Grand, he is arguably facing his toughest opponent to date. Chris Weidman (9-0, 5-0) has dominated all five of his opponents in the UFC and landed one of the best knockouts of 2012 in his last appearance. (Weidman KO). This is a classic young breed vs. old breed type of fight, but Anderson Silva is a different type of animal. He's not your average 38 year old athlete. The big question is Weidman ready for Silva? Everyone seems to think he is, especially MMA experts and fighters. Silva comes in as a (2:1) favorite, the lowest he's been favored since he fought Dan Henderson five years ago. Anderson Silva has more middleweight title defenses (10) than Weidman has fights (9). "The All-American" has the perfect style to dethrone the king of the 185 lb. division but it's an entire different ball game when you are fighting a legend for his belt in the Main Event.

UFC matchmaker Joe Silva was on point once again and picked some very entertaining matchups that are set to deliver the best fireworks of the weekend. Frankie Edgar (15-4-1, 9-4-1) returns for the first time since his loss to the featherweight champ, Jose Aldo, and looks to get his first win in 21 months against Charles Oliveira (16-3, 4-3). Tim Kennedy (15-4, 0-0) and Roger Gracie (6-1, 0-0) make their octagon debuts after both having good runs in Strikeforce. Mark Munoz (12-3, 7-3) and Tim Boetsch (16-5, 7-4) look to rebound after they both had four-fight win streaks snapped in their last octagon appearances. Cub Swanson (19-5, 4-1) has reeled off four in a row and three by knockout and if he puts on another good performance against Dennis Siver (21-8, 10-5) he'll be one inch closer to a rematch with Jose Aldo.

The preliminary fights have some intriguing matchups as Chris Leben (22-9, 12-8), loser of two in a row, and three of four, needs an impressive performance against Andrew Craig (8-1, 2-1) if he wants to avoid a pink slip. Dave Herman (21-5, 1-3) faces Gabriel Gonzaga (14-7, 9-6) and both need a win badly to stay relevant in the heavyweight division. Also, Edson Barboza (11-1, 5-1) wants to prove his loss to Jamie Varner 14 months ago was a fluke when he tries to get his second straight win against Rafaello Oliveira (16-5, 2-4) to start off the FX's prelims.

UFC 162: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas
Saturday July 6, 2013

Facebook Prelims: 7 p.m. ET

FX Prelims: 8 p.m. ET

Main Card (Pay-Per-View): 10 p.m. ET


         MAIN EVENT: Anderson Silva vs. Chris Weidman
   Anderson Silva is the best mixed martial artist to ever live. He has dominated the UFC middleweight division for seven years and once Saturday gets here it will be 3,109 days since his last loss. Okay, 2,724 days if you count his DQ loss against Yushin Okami at "Rumble on the Rock 8" in 2006. Anderson Silva has more knockdowns and knockouts than anyone that's ever stepped inside the octagon. "The Spider" has the highest striking accuracy, most finishes, and most fight bonuses in UFC history. Silva has finished 26 of 38 opponents during his MMA career and has 20 knockouts on his resume. He has finished all five of his last fights and four by knockout. He has finished 14 of 16 fights in the UFC and 11 by knockout. The Ultimate Fighting Championship is by far the most competitive MMA organization and he is a perfect 16-0. The most remarkable thing about Silva is how dominant he has been. There has only been one time when he was in danger of losing and thanks to Chael Sonnen's horrible submission defense, Silva locked in a triangle in the fifth round to keep his record perfect in the UFC. A lot of people tend to forget Silva was nursing a serious rib injury and we saw how the rematch went. Silva has beaten the likes of Sonnen (2X), Vitor Belfort, Dan Henderson, Rich Franklin (2X), Stephan Bonnar, Yushin Okami, Demian Maia, Forrest Griffin, Thales Leites, Patrick Cote, James Irvin, Travis Lutter, Nate Marquardt, and Chris Leben during his UFC career. The best attribute Silva has is his patience. Any Silva fight you watch he is always in control and never gets out of his comfort zone. He is the most technical fighter in MMA history and he truly is the Muhammed Ali of mixed martial arts.

Chris Weidman presents some serious problems for Silva. He is a former two-time All-American wrestler and finished third in the NCAA tournament during his senior year at Hofstra. The best way to beat Silva is to neutralize his stand up and put him on his back. Sonnen did it constantly in their first fight. He put the middleweight champ on his back for nearly 20 minutes, double the amount of time Silva has spent on his back during his entire UFC career. Sonnen showed the blueprint how to beat the "King" of the middleweight division. Sonnen had the experience and had been in big-time fights before stepping into the cage with Silva, the same can't be said for Weidman. However, Weidman is by far a better athlete than Sonnen and has an outstanding submission game. Everyone remembers when Matt Serra shocked the world at UFC 69 when he pulled off one of the biggest upsets in UFC history (Matt Serra does the impossible against GSP.) Weidman has been with Matt Serra's camp (Serra-Longa Fight Team) for five years and they are one of the most respected camps in the world. Chris Weidman will be ready to roll this Saturday night even though Serra won't be in his corner because of health reasons. Weidman will enter the cage with a ton of confidence against Anderson Silva, which is usually not the case. This is huge because a lot of fighters step into the cage against Silva already defeated. While Silva has 28 more MMA fights than Weidman, "The All-American" has plenty of experience. Weidman competed in grappling tournaments and the ADCC Submission Wrestling Championships before turning pro in 2009. He won the East Coast Grappler's Quest ending all 13 matches by submission. He is a very well-rounded fighter and has finished six of his nine fights, three by submission and three by knockout. Everyone was in awe of Urijah Hall during last season's Ultimate Fighter, Chris Weidman wasn't. He ran through Hall back in 2010 at "Ring of Combat 31" finishing him in the first round. You knew Weidman was the real deal because he has never been given an easy fight during his UFC career. Alessio Sakara, Jesse Bongfeldt, Tom Lawler, Demian Maia, and Mark Munoz all had one thing in common when facing Weidman: dominated.

I am so excited for this fight because it's rare when Silva actually has a chance to lose. Everyone knows what Weidman wants to do in this fight, put Silva on his back. Silva showed way better takedown defense against Sonnen in the rematch. He is going to need to display that again on Saturday night. Weidman needs to land on the feet so he can shoot in for takedowns. This fight could very well come down to who does a better job in these two areas: Silva's takedown defense and Weidman's standup. The most impressive statistic about Chris Weidman is he has only been controlled for three seconds during his five fights in the UFC (28 minutes and 38 seconds inside the octagon). That is remarkable. His 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes rank him first among active fighters in the middleweight division and second all-time. His takedown accuracy is off the charts too (72.2%). It cracks me up when I hear people say Anderson Silva's weakness is his takedown defense all because they saw the first Sonnen fight. That is far from the truth. Silva ranks in the top five in the middleweight division stuffing 70% of attempted takedowns. This fight is going to come down to who controls where the fight goes. If it stays on the feet, Silva will walk out of the octagon victorious for the 17th straight time. If Weidman puts Silva on his back consistently, he has a good chance to bring the middleweight belt back to New York. I just don't think Weidman is ready for a guy like Silva yet. Every fight "The All-American" has been in he has controlled the pace and he has never had to deal with adversity. This will be a great lesson for Weidman but I think Silva's takedown defense will frustrate the challenger and he will get picked apart as each minute goes by. Expect a Superfight if Silva leaves the MGM Grand with his belt for the 12th consecutive time or an immediate rematch if Weidman pulls off the upset.










PREDICTION: Anderson Silva by TKO - Rd. 2



       CO-MAIN EVENT: Frankie Edgar vs. Charles Oliveira

Wait. Frankie Edgar is fighting and it's not a title fight!!! The last time Edgar fought in a non-title fight was December 5, 2009. Once Saturday is here it will be 1,309 days since "The Anwser" fought in a three round fight. I love watching Edgar fight because he is the type of guy you'd see at a bar and think you could take him, which would not end well. You could crack him over the head with a bottle and he'd keep coming. If you look up the definition of heart, determination, or endurance you would find the same answer: Frankie Edgar. If you don't believe me just watch the first round of his last two fights against Gray Maynard. Edgar comes in on a three fight skid but those losses came to the featherweight (Jose Aldo) and lightweight champ (Ben Henderson). All three fights were extremely close. I think we are going to see a different Edgar this time around. He has come out slow recently, but a lot of that has to do with five round title fights. He will be rejuvenated and come out of the gates quick knowing this is a three round fight.

Charles Oliveira had a lot of hype behind him after starting his MMA career 14-0 and a lot of experts were considering him the next best thing in the lightweight division. He started his UFC career 2-0 submitting Darren Elkins and Efrain Escudero but then went winless during his next three (0-2 and 1 NC). He dropped down to 145 lbs. after his three fight skid and has gone 2-1 in the featherweight division. He needs a good performance on Saturday night in the Co-Main Event against his toughest opponent to date. Cub Swanson knocked him out in his last octagon appearance and he's looking for his biggest win in his young UFC career. Oliveira has a very good ground game and is one of the best submission artists in the featherweight division. Nine of his 16 wins have come by submission and three of his four wins in the UFC have ended via submission. He pulled off one of the best submissions in UFC history when he locked in a calf slicer (only fighter in UFC history to pull this submission off) against Eric Wisely at UFC on Fox 2 in his featherweight debut. (Watch with caution: This will hurt your calf.)

Oliveira has a ton of potential but it will have to wait. Edgar has been one of the best fighters in the UFC for the last four years and wants a rematch with Jose Aldo. He knows an impressive performance against Oliveira will get him closer to what he's best at: rematches. Edgar has never been finished in his MMA career and I don't see that coming to an end this Saturday. He is one of the hardest guys to hit, during his UFC career he has avoided nearly 72% of all strikes thrown at him. His submission defense is off the charts and he should be able to control the pace of the fight. I see Edgar controlling this fight from the opening bell until the final second runs off the clock. If Edgar dominates against Oliveira he has a good chance to have another date with Jose Aldo.

PREDICTION: Frankie Edgar via Unanimous Decision

           MAIN CARD: Roger Gracie vs. Tim Kennedy

I can't wait for this matchup. The fighters who have come over from Strikeforce have done a remarkable job so far. They have done better than a lot of MMA experts thought. Enter two more legitimate contenders in the middleweight division: Tim Kennedy and Roger Gracie.

Kennedy was one of the best middleweights in Strikeforce. He went 4-2 and his two losses came against Ronald "Jacare" Souza and Luke Rockhold for the middleweight belt. Both fights were close but Kennedy got Frankie Edgar'd. Tim Kennedy is Chael Sonnen's long lost brother. He just goes out and competes, he doesn't care who he fights. You know he is a badass because he doesn't need a nickname. Kennedy is a very well-rounded fighter with good wrestling and has an excellent submission game. 13 of his 15 career wins have been by stoppage and eight by submission. Kennedy trains with Greg Jackson's camp, arguably the best camp in the world. The U.S. Army sergeant is ready to roll this Saturday and an impressive UFC debut could land him a big-time opponent next time around.

It's always nice to see a Gracie compete in the UFC. The UFC wouldn't be where it is at today if it wasn't for the Gracie family. Royce Gracie helped globalize the UFC and put the Ultimate Fighting Championship, and more importantly, Brazilian jiu-jitsu on the map. Roger Gracie has not dissapointed the family name. From 2003-10 he competed in the World Jiu-Jitsu Championships and won 10 gold medals and five silvers. It is by far the most gold medals won by anyone competing in the Mundials. After winning gold in the Super Heavyweight division and the Absolute division at the 2010 Mundials, he decided to focus solely on mixed martial arts. Gracie has transitioned well in MMA and has gone 6-1. His only loss was to the former Strikeforce light heavyweight champion, Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal. Five of his six career wins have come by, yes you guessed it, submission. He enters the cage on Saturday night riding a two-fight win streak.

This is a tough matchup to pick. Both fighters aren't the best on the feet. Kennedy has the edge standing up, by default. Gracie is trying to do one thing, get his opponent on the ground, even if he has to pull guard. His submission game is arguably the best in the world. Kennedy has a very good ground game but he will try and keep this fight on the feet. Expect a lot of leg kicks and jabs to keep Gracie off balanced. The former U.S. Army sergeant has a very good wrestling pedigree and it will be important to stuff any takedowns to keep this fight on the feet. Gracie is a wizard from any position on the ground, if it gets to the canvas it could be a quick night for Kennedy. I think Kennedy's wrestling will be huge in this fight, not to get takedowns, but to keep this fight on the feet.

PREDICTION: Tim Kennedy via Unanimous Decision

            MAIN CARD: Mark Munoz vs. Tim Boetsch

Mark Munoz was on his way to a shot at Anderson Silva until he ran into the Weidman train. He reeled off four wins in a row against Chris Leben, Demian Maia, C.B. Dollaway, Aaron Simpson and had won seven of his last eight before Weidman knocked him out cold. This is a huge fight for Munoz because a second consecutive loss would send him far back in the pecking order in the middleweight division. "The Filipino Wrecking Machine" has had an impressive run inside the octagon going 7-3 with three knockout wins and one submission victory. (It really should be four knockouts, Ryan Jensen submitted to strikes.) The Vallejo native is one of the best wrestlers in the middleweight division and has lethal ground and pound. At Vallejo High he was a two-time California state champion. At Oklahoma State University he won two Big 12 titles and earned back-to-back All-American honors. He became the first Filipino American to win a National Championship in division one. Munoz has transitioned into a well-rounded mixed martial artist and needs an impressive performance to get close to the top of the middleweight division.

Tim Boetsch is the definition of a blue collar fighter. He isn't the most talented but he will outwork you any day of the week. Dropping down a weight class was the smartest move "The Barbarian" made. He was a perfect 4-0 inside the octagon at middleweight before Costas Phillipou ruined his impressive run. He had one of the best comebacks in UFC history when he knocked out Yushin Okami at UFC 144 in the third and final round. He welcomed Hector Lombard to the UFC and ended his 20-fight win streak. Boetsch trains with Matt Hume's camp, AMC Pankration, one of the most underrated camps in the world. This is going to be a very interesting matchup because both have wrestling backgrounds and have a better than average striking arsenal.

This fight is 50-50 in my eyes. Mark Munoz is coming off a devastating loss and surgery to repair bone spurs in his elbow. He is eager to get back in the octagon, but sometimes that is not always good. It will be important for him to patient and not try and force anything. Last time he tried that was during his UFC debut when Matt Hamill landed a brutal head-kick KO. I don't see that happening this time around. Expect a very impressive Munoz on Saturday night. Boetsch is going to try and make this fight ugly and drag it out. He wants Munoz to get frustrated but I don't see "The Filipino Wrecking Machine" abandoning his gameplan. The former Oklahoma State alum will find a way to squeak out a very close decision thanks to his very strong wrestling game.

PREDICTION: Mark Munoz via Split-Decision

             MAIN CARD: Cub Swanson vs. Dennis Siver

A lot of people thought Cub Swanson was past his prime after Jose Aldo ended his night with a flying knee eight seconds into their matchup at WEC 41 just over four years ago. He went 2-2 after that knockout and a lot of MMA experts didn't think he'd last long in the UFC. Funny how things change. He has won four in a row since then and three have come by knockout. Expect Swanson to look for another knockout win because he feels disrespected that he's not fighting in the Co-Main Event. Charles Oliveira is getting a crack at Edgar, and he is one of the knockout victims during Swanson's four-fight win streak. (Swanson KO of Oliveira). Since his loss to Chad Mendes at WEC 50, back in August 2010, he made the best decision of his life. He moved from Palm Springs to Albuquerque and started training full time with Greg Jackson's camp. He's gone 5-1 and has quickly become the best Cub Swanson we have seen. He is on the cusp of a title shot at 145 lbs., and more importantly, another shot at Jose Aldo.

Dennis Siver continues to go under the radar. Since dropping down to featherweight he has gone 2-0. He has won six of his last seven and 10 of 12. The 34-year old German is one of the best kickboxers in the UFC and has a very underrated submission game. Of his 20 career MMA wins he has finished two-thirds of his opponents (five by knockout and nine via submission). He is still looking for his first finish in the 145 lb. division after winning his first two by decision against Diego Nunes and Nam Phan. Siver thinks he deserves to be in the title picture too and an impressive performance against Swanson will skyrocket him among the top contenders in the featherweight division.

As Bart Scott says, "I can't wait" for this one. This is the perfect fight to start off the night on Pay-Per-View. It's the Fourth of July weekend and expect a lot of fireworks in this one. Both of these guys are very good on the feet. If this fight goes the distance, or at least makes it to the second round, it has a great chance to steal "Fight of the Night" honors. They have combined for 28 finishes in their MMA careers but it'll be hard for either fighter to walk away with a knockout. Siver has only been knocked out once in his 29 career MMA fights, against Melvin Guillard, one of the best knockout artists in the UFC. The only time Swanson was finished by strikes was against Jose Aldo, enough said. I see this fight staying on the feet and both chins will be tested. Swanson is second all-time in the featherweight division (WEC/UFC) landing 48% of his strikes. Swanson will be too quick for Siver on Saturday night and has a good chance to land first against the German.

PREDICTION: Cub Swanson by TKO - Rd. 1

FX PRELIM PREDICTIONS

Chris Leben over Andrew Craig - TKO (Rd. 2)

Norman Parke over Kazuki Tokudome - Split Decision

Gabriel Gonzaga over Dave Herman - Submission (Rd. 1)

Edson Barboza over Rafaello Oliveira - TKO (Rd. 1)


FACEBOOK PRELIM PREDICTIONS

Seth Baczynski over Brian Melancon - Submission (Rd. 2)

Mike Pierce over David Mitchell - Unanimous Decision