Tuesday, February 17, 2015

March Madness: Right Around the Corner

Guess what baby?

We are 26, yes 26 days away from Selection Sunday, and only 30 more days until the 2015 NCAA Tournament begins, well 28 days if we are talking about the play-in games, but who am I kidding the only thing those games are good for is giving us a reason to drink alcohol and eat greasy food on a Tuesday and Wednesday night. 
As my boy Dickie V says, "It's awesome baby!" 

Now I know a lot of people are already circling Kentucky as the 2015 champs, and boy, do they have a good reason to do that. They are loaded with nine former McDonald's All Americans, only one other team in college basketball history has had that many McDonald's All Americans, the 1984 North Carolina squad, you know the one with Sam Perkins, Brad Daugherty, Kenny Smith, and some guy named Michael Jordan. But, Kentucky is hoping to do something that 84' squad couldn't, win it all. 

The Wildcats are trying to become the ninth team ever to finish a season undefeated, and if they do, it would be the first time since 1976, when Bob Knight led the Hoosiers to a perfect 32-0 record. So far this year Kentucky is a perfect 25-0 with six games left, and potentially nine if they run through the SEC Tournament. 

Lets just put it this way, there is a 90% chance Kentucky enters the NCAA Tournament 34-0. The Wildcats are easily the deepest team in the country and it's almost impossible to pick one guy who is their top cat because night in and night out it is someone new. The Harrison twins proved how clutch they were last year during their run to the Championship game, Karl Anthony-Towns, Devin Booker, Trey Lyles, and Tyler Ulis make for one of the top freshman classes in the country, but most importantly, they have a healthy Willie Cauley-Stein. In last years tourney the 7-footer sprained his ankle early in their Sweet 16 matchup against Louisville and he was not able to play the rest of the tournament, which ended up hurting Kentucky big-time in the championship game against Connecticut.  

If anyone from Kentucky wins Player of the Year it's gotta be Willie Cauley-Stein. He's the perfect team player, he's only averaging 9.4 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.6 BPG, and 1.4 SPG, but he's one of those guys that goes beyond the stat line. Cauley-Stein is arguably the top defensive player in the game and he might be the best big man at running the floor and finishing with authority.

It's going to be tough for anyone to knock off Kentucky, but we all know how hard winning an NCAA championship is, and March Madness is near impossible to predict, I mean there is a reason Warren Buffett was willing to lay a billion dollars on the line for anyone who could pick a perfect bracket, lets just say no one made it to the second round of his bracket challenge. 

One team that is close to matching Kentucky in talent are the boys from Durham, North Carolina: The Duke Blue Devils.

Duke has eight McDonald's All Americans, and it would have been nine if Rasheed Sulaimon didn't get kicked off the team in late January. I think it's safe to say Mike Krzyzewski knows what he is doing, they are 5-0 since Sulaimon was dismissed. 

If Kentucky doesn't have the best freshman class in the country it's because of Duke. Jahlil Okafor is a slam dunk to be the top pick in the 2015 NBA Draft, Tyus Jones is one of the best point guards in the country, and Justise Winslow is one of the best all-around players in the game. The trio is averaging over 40 PPG, nearly 20 RPG, and close to 10 dimes a game, and if they all declare for the 2015 NBA Draft there is a good chance all three will be lottery selections.

But, it Coach K wants to win his fifth NCAA championship it will come down to a different trio - Quinn Cook, Amile Jefferson, and Matt Jones. Cook, the lone senior who gets important minutes, is second on the team averaging nearly 15 points a game. Him and Tyus Jones help form one of the top backcourts in the country, and Ryan Boatright & Shabazz Napier showed how important backcourt play in the tournament is last year, so if Duke wants to win it all, it will be crucial for Jones and Cook to ball out in March.

The biggest difference Duke has in the tournament isn't one of the five on the court it is the man with over 1,000 career wins: Mike Krzyzewski. Only John Wooden has more NCAA titles than Coach K, who is trying to move into second place all-time. Him and Adolph Rudd both have four. The most winning coach in NCAA Division 1 history has led Duke to 11 Final Fours and this will be the 20th consecutive season the Blue Devils are in the tournament, the second longest active streak in the country. Coach K will enter the 2015 tourney as the most winning active coach with an 82-25 record (.767 winning percentage). 

Now, I know this year there is a short list of serious title contenders so I bogged it down to five who have a legitimate shot at cutting down the nets in April.

VIRGINIA (24-1, 12-1) 1st Place in ACC

Since Tony Bennett (no, not that Tony Bennett, the one that has his heart in Charlottesville. Virginia) took over in 2009 he has led Virginia to their best days since Ralph Sampson was ballin' for the Cavs back in the early 80's. 

Since the start of the last season Virginia is 54-8 and they are the No. 2 team in the country. Their lone loss came to Duke but the biggest loss came two games after against Louisville when their best player, Justin Anderson, broke his finger. The 6'6" junior is most likely out until the NCAA Tournament begins, and it's still not 100% known when he will be back. This team still has a load of talent with Malcolm Brogdon, Anthony Gill, Darion Atkins, and London Perrantes, but their NCAA title hopes solely rests on the health of Anderson's left hand.

WISCONSIN (23-2, 11-1) 1st in Big Ten

I think it's time for America to realize how good this Wisconsin team is this year. This might be Bo Ryan's best team to date, and he has had some incredible squads during his 15-year tenure in Madison, Wisconsin. 


After a run to the Final Four last year, this team might be headed for another crack at it. Their 7-foot stud, Frank Kaminsky, has a good chance to be named Player of the Year this season. He's averaging nearly 20 points and 10 boards a game and shooting just under 55% from the floor. This Badger team is a lot more than "Frank the Tank" though. Sam Dekker, Nigel Hayes, and Josh Gasser, help form one of the better starting fives in the game, and senior guard Traevon Jackson should be coming back in the next couple of weeks to help solidify the starting lineup. Even in Jackson's absence the Badgers are 8-0, and boy, has Bronson Koenig stepped up. In nine starts this year the sophomore is averaging nearly 13 points, shooting 53% from beyond the three-point line, and has a better assists-to-turnover ratio (3.8:1) than Jackson (1.75:1) this year. But, if the Badgers make a run in March they will need their big shot maker on the floor, the son of Jim Jackson, Mr. Traevon Jackson. 

GONZAGA (26-1, 14-0) 1st in West Coast League

Now I know it's not hard to go undefeated in the West Coast League but they have dominated their opponents. Only four of their 26 wins have come by single digits and they are outscoring their opponents by more than 20 points per game. The Zag's only loss this year was at Arizona and it was a three-point loss in overtime. 


Kentucky transfer Kyle Wiltjer is probably the best player in the country no one is talking about. The 6'10" junior has finally found a home in Spokane, Washington. After struggling to find consistent playing time with Coach Calipari in his first two seasons he decided to transfer to Gonzaga, and after sitting out last year due to NCAA transfer rules, he has been Gonzaga's best player. He's their leading scorer averaging 16.4 points per game, and he's shooting 54% from the floor, 44% from three, and 80% from the charity stripe. How much do you think he would love to see Kentucky in March? 

The Bulldogs are a lot more than their 6'10" junior and you gotta start with their 6'2" senior guard Kevin Pangos. He is one of the best all-around guards in the country, he's averaging 12 points a game and nearly five assists, but his ability to control the pace of the game is his best attribute. Przemek Karnowski, Byron Wesley, Gary Bell Jr., and Domantas Sobonis help form one of the deeper teams in the country. And yes, that Sabonis name does sound familiar - he's the son of Arvydas Sabonis - the best player to ever come from Lithuania.  In his freshman season he's averaging nearly 10 points and seven rebounds, but most impressively, he's leading the country shooting 70.7% from the field. Mark Few has had some legit Gonzaga teams in the past but this might be his best group in his 16-year tenure. It will be the 16th consecutive season Few has led the Zag's to the NCAA Tournament, but he's hoping this team will be the first to lead him past the Sweet 16.

ARIZONA (22-3, 10-2) T-1st in PAC 12

Arizona is loaded with some of the most gifted players in the country. Stanley Johnson is one of the best players in the game, and he's only a freshman. All the 6'7" forward has done his whole career is win. During his four years at Mater Dei High School he led them to four straight CIF state titles, the only player in California High School basketball history to do that. And, in his first season in the desert he's leading the Wildcats in scoring (14.5) and rebounding (6.7). He's about a 99% lock to enter the 2015 NBA Draft, but he's hoping he can help bring Arizona their second National Title, and first since 1997 before he heads to the next level. 

The Wildcats are a lot more than their freshman sensation, senior guard T.J. McConnell is one of the most underrated players in the country. He reminds me a lot of Ohio State's former four-year standout Aaron Craft, a guy who just got the job done. McConnell is averaging just under 10 points, a team high six assists, four rebounds, and a team high 2.2 steals per game. 6'7" sophomore high-flyer Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is one of the most talented players in the country and he can single handily shut down the oppositions best player. The Wildcats were dealt a huge blow last year when Brandon Ashley went down with a season-ending injury in early February, and this year he's been huge for Sean Miller. The Wildcats are 43-4 in games Ashley has played in since the start of the 2013-14 season, and they are 12-4 without him. Him along with 7-footer Kaleb Tarczewski help form one of the top frontcourts in the country and the size that Arizona offers will frustrate any team in March. If I had to pick one team that would potentially give Kentucky the most trouble it would be the Arizona Wildcats because they can match up athletically with Calipari's squad. 

LOUISVILLE (20-5, 8-4) T-4th in the ACC

Out of all the other teams left in the field I think Louisville could potentially be a dark horse pick. They are probably going to be anywhere from a three to five seed depending on how they finish the season, and losing 74-65 to North Carolina State in their last game doesn't help them towards a three seed. 

The reason I think they have a chance to make a run in March is because they have one of the best bigs in the country in 6'8" Montrezl Harrell, let's just say he's the Marshawn Lynch of college basketball, he's pure beastmode! 

But, the main reason why I think Rick Pitino has a shot at winning his third National Championship is because of the Cardinals starting backcourt. Terry Rozier and Chris Jones are averaging 30-plus points, nearly 10 rebounds, and six assists combined this year, and boy, when these guys get hot they are near impossible to guard. The one problem with Pitino's squad is their depth though, so if one of their top-three guys has an off night in March it could mean an early exit for Louisville. 


10 OTHER TEAMS TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN MARCH

VILLANOVA (24-2, 11-2) 1st in Big East

KANSAS (21-5, 10-3) 1st in Big 12

UTAH (20-4, 10-2) T-1st in Pac 12

NOTRE DAME (22-4, 10-3) 2nd in ACC

NORTH CAROLINA (18-7, 8-4) T-4th in ACC

OHIO STATE (19-7, 8-5) T-5th in Big Ten

IOWA STATE (18-6, 8-4) 2nd in Big 12

NORTHERN IOWA (24-2, 13-1) T-1st in Missouri Valley Conference

WICHITA STATE (23-3, 13-1) T-1st in Missouri Valley Conference

INDIANA (18-8, 8-5) T-5th in Big Ten


Alright baby, now it's time to roll the dice and give you my predictions - 


FRESHMAN OF THE YEAR: JAHLIL OKAFOR (DUKE)

COACH OF THE YEAR: LARRY KRYSTKOWIAK (UTAH)

PLAYER OF THE YEAR: FRANK KAMINSKY (WISCONSIN)


2015 NATIONAL CHAMPIONS - ARIZONA WILDCATS



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