Saturday, May 28, 2016

UFC Fight Night 88: Sleeper Card of 2016

While most mixed martial arts fans are getting excited for UFC 199 and UFC 200, everyone is forgetting about UFC Fight Night 88, the sleeper card of 2016


It goes down this Sunday on Fox Sports 1 with the prelims starting at 7 P.M. E/T and the main card kicks off at 9 P.M. E/T. 

And, trust me, get your popcorn ready for the Main Event because it features two of the best prospects in the bantamweight division when Cody Garbrandt and Thomas Almeida put their perfect records on the line. 

Now, while this card doesn't feature that big-time name like Jon Jones or Conor McGregor, it makes up for it with depth. A huge fight with big implications goes down in the bantamweight division, when Aljamain Sterling puts his undefeated streak on the line against Bryan Caraway, who has won six of his last eight, including the biggest win of his career in his last fight against Eddie Wineland, but this card is so stacked this scrap didn't even make it on the prelims or main card, it is on UFC Fight Pass.

And, before we break down the main card, let's go over the prelims real quick and Erik Koch and Shane Campbell start the party, and back in 2013 it looked like Koch was going to be the next legit featherweight prospect, but Ricardo Lamas' elbows got in the way, and he's never needed a win this bad in his MMA career. Koch has dropped three of four, and if he makes it four of five it might be time for Bellator. The always exciting Abel "Killa" Trujillo looks to make it three in a row and five of his last six against UFC newcomer Jordan Rinaldi, who is stepping in on short notice, and in the main event on the prelims it's a big-time fight in the women's bantamweight division as Sara McMann and Jessica Eye will both be looking to get back in the win column. 

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 88 - Fox Sports 1 Main Card

CODY GARBRANDT (8-0) vs. THOMAS ALMEIDA (20-0)

RENAN BARAO (33-3) vs. JEREMY STEPHENS (24-12)

TAREC SAFFIEDINE (16-4) vs. RICK STORY (18-8)

VITOR MIRANDA (12-4) vs. CHRIS CAMOZZI (23-10)

JORGE MASVIDAL (29-10) vs. LORENZ LARKIN (16-5)

JOSH BURKMAN (28-12) vs. PAUL FELDER (11-2)

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 88 - Fox Sports 1 Prelims

SARA McMANN (8-3) vs. JESSICA EYE (11-4)

ABEL TRUJILLO (14-6) vs. JORDAN RINALDI (12-4)

JAKE COLLIER (9-3) vs. ALBERTO UDA (9-0)

ERIK KOCH (14-4) vs. SHANE CAMPBELL (12-4)

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 88 - UFC Fight Pass Prelims

ALJAMAIN STERLING (12-0) vs. BRYAN CARAWAY (20-7)

CHRIS DE LA ROCHA (4-1) vs. ADAM MILSTEAD (7-1)

*Favored fighter is in bold - Bovada Betting Line
- Saffiedine vs. Story is an even betting line as of May 28th

Alright baby, let's jump right in and get to the main card, and you can never go wrong when fan favorite Paul Felder gets the party started against the always game Josh Burkman. Felder bounced back from his two fight skid with a come-from-behind submission victory against Daron Cruickshank and Burkman enters Sunday night with a little bit of momentum after a unanimous decision win in his last Octagon appearance against K.J. Noons. "The People's Warrior" is one of the most experienced fighters in the UFC and he's hoping he can put together a nice win streak to get back into the Top 10 of the lightweight division. 

PREDICTION: I really could see this fight go either way, Burkman is always tough, and Felder is one of the grittiest guys in all of MMA, but I gotta lean with Felder in this one. He's the younger, more hungry fighter and I think this will be on display Sunday night. The one knock on Felder is he's a slow starter, but if he can make it through the first round, which shouldn't be a problem, because Burkman hasn't had a first-round finish since his World Series of Fighting days, and the longer this fight goes I think Felder will have a huge advantage. 

PAUL FELDER via 3rd Round TKO

Up next is a matchup of two former Strikeforce stars, Lorenz Larkin and Jorge Masvidal, who have both had their ups-and-downs in the UFC. Larkin has dropped five of eight fights inside the Octagon but it looks like he found his home in the welterweight division, since dropping down to 170 he's gone 2-1 with his lone loss coming in his last fight against Albert Tumenov in a razor-thin split-decision. On Sunday it will be Masvidal's 10th time entering the Octagon and he's had more success than Larkin, going 7-3, but he has failed to step up against the bigger name opponents.

PREDICTION: This is a very close fight to predict, and I think this is going to be an absolute war. Larkin will have the size advantage once the doors close, and this should play a big role on Sunday. Make sure and have your eyes glued to the TV screen for this one, this fight will have a good chance to the "Fight of the Night."

LORENZ LARKIN via Split Decision

The third fight on the main card features two guys on a little bit of a winning streak, as Vitor Miranda has won three in a row, all by TKO, after losing in his UFC debut in "The Ultimate Fighter Brazil 3 Finale," while Chris Camozzi has reeled off two straight, and four of five. Trust me, get your popcorn ready for this one, both of these dudes are two of the better kickboxers in the middleweight division and this fight should be full of fireworks. This is a huge fight for both men as they try and cement themselves into the Top 10 of the 185-pound division. 

PREDICTION: I can't wait for this one, there is nothing better than a nice standup fight, and this has a good chance to be just that. Both guys are big-time Muay Thai kickboxers, but you have to give the edge to Miranda, but the longer this fight goes I think it will favor Camozzi. He's the more experienced fighter inside the Octagon and he's fought tougher guys than Miranda has, so that could play a vital role on Sunday. If this fight gets out of the first round, expect things to start leaning Camozzi's way. 

CHRIS CAMOZZI via 3rd Round TKO

The fight leading up to the co-main event is a huge fight for both Tarec Saffiedine and Rick Story as they try and get back to the upper echelon of the welterweight division. Not too long ago, Story looked like the next great 170-pounder, after dropping his UFC debut back in 2009, he reeled off six in a row, including wins over Johny Hendricks and Thiago Alves, but Nate Marquardt's elevated testosterone messed it all up for him. Marquardt got pulled from the fight and Charlie Brenneman was a late replacement and the rest is history. Now, nearly five years later Story is making another run in the welterweight division, he's won two in a row, including a huge win against arguably the most underrated fighter in the UFC, Gunnar Nelson. 

Safffiedine entered the UFC as the last Strikeforce welterweight champion, and enters Sunday night with a 2-1 record inside the Octagon, with his lone loss coming to one of the best fighters in the business, Rory MacDonald. It's been a tough couple of years for the Belgian though, he's battled numerous injuries, on Sunday it will be his second fight in 603 days, and the rust showed against Jake Ellenberger. Even though he pulled out a unanimous decision victory, he got rocked in the first, but did just enough in the second and third to hand Ellenberger his fourth loss in his last five fights. Saffiedine came over to the Ultimate Fighting Championship with a ton of hype but nagging injuries have slowed down the Temecula native, and a decisive win on Sunday could get the hype train back on the railroad. 

PREDICTION: This fight is the only one on the card that is a pick em'. According to Bovada's betting line they are both -115 favorites and I see this fight the exact same way. The big question for me is will Saffiedine have a little more bounce in his step after finally getting back in the Octagon after a long layoff from October 2014 until January 2016. He didn't look great in his fight against Ellenberger, while Story has looked impressive in his last four appearances, he's 3-1 during that time, with his lone loss coming to Kelvin Gastelum via split-decision. It'll be important for Saffiedine to get off to a good start, if he allows Story to get some confidence early, it spells trouble for the former Strikeforce champ. 

RICK STORY via Unanimous Decision 

Alright baby it's time for the co-main event and former UFC bantamweight champ Renan Barao makes his long-awaited featherweight debut against the always dangerous Jeremy Stephens. People have been calling for a move up in weight for Nova Uniao product and Joe Silva isn't giving him any cupcakes to start off his 145-pound stint. Stephens is one of the most vicious knockout artists in the UFC, 16 of his 24 wins have come by TKO or KO, and in case you forgot, this is what he did to the current UFC lightweight champ, Rafael Dos Anjos.

But, after a 3-0 start to begin his featherweight run, "Lil' Heathen" has dropped three of four, with his lone win coming against Dennis Bermudez in one of the best fights of 2015 at UFC 189.

And, if it wasn't for some guy named T.J. Dillishaw you could make a strong case that Renan Barao was becoming the best pound-for-pound fighter in all of MMA. He went 3,327 days and 33 fights in a row without tasting defeat, but the former bantamweight king has not looked the same since Dillishaw finished him at UFC 173. He's hoping a jump up to 145 can rejuvenate his career, and not having to go through that gruesome weight-cut could be exactly what the doctor ordered for the Brazilian star. 

PREDICTION: This is a huge moment in both Stephens and Barao's career, it'll be hard for the loser to ever get back into title contention, and the winner will put themselves in a great spot for one last run at the title. This is a bigger fight for Barao for sure, he's making his debut in a new weight class, and if he runs through Stephens he will jump up the 145-pound rankings quickly. A win for Stephens though against a former champion would be big-time for the UFC veteran. Man, this is a tough fight to predict, it's nearly impossible to guess what Barao is going to show up, will it be the one who didn't lose a fight in a nine-year span, or the one who has lost two of three, and the win wasn't that impressive over Mitch Gagnon either. I am going with the upset in this one, I think Stephens is going to finish this fight with one punch, you always hear about the domino effect, and in MMA I call it the Chuck Liddell effect, once you get knocked out once, it seems to keep happening, and the former bantamweight champ has been knocked out twice in his last three appearances, and I think it is about to be three of four.

JEREMY STEPHENS via 1st Round KO 

Ayyyye!! It's time for the main event baby, and this fight has a chance to the best fight of 2016. Now, let's jump in the time travel machine and head back to February 5, 2011, when two big-time prospects in the light heavyweight division faced off, as Jon Jones and Ryan Bader squared off in a huge 205-pound showdown, and I think it's safe to say we know how it turned out. Jones hasn't looked back since, he's turned into the best pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC in my opinion, and the same will be on the line this Sunday night in the main event because the winner of this one will have a chance to turn into the king of the bantamweight division.

Team Alpha Male's Cody Garbrandt enters this one a perfect 8-0 and he's breezed through UFC competition, he's 3-0, and two have ended by knockout. He's the real deal, his all-around game is legit, he has power in both hands, and his wrestling skills are off the charts, like most fighters who come out of Urijah Faber's Sacramento-based gym. 


On the other side of the cage is Brazilian superstar Thomas Almeida who is a perfect 20-0 with 19 of those fights coming by stoppage (16 TKO's, 3 Subs). This will be his fifth UFC appearance and his last three have all ended in emphatic fashion

I can't wait for this fight, this is the biggest non-title fight in bantamweight history, the next star of the 135-pound division will come out of this one and with Dominick Cruz aging, the division needs a young superstar to go side-by-side with T.J. Dillishaw, and the winner of this bout could very well become the Jon Jones of the bantamweight division. 

PREDICTION: This is the most interesting fight on the card, Almeida is the slight favorite in Vegas, but in my opinion it's a pick em'. Both guys have looked great in their young UFC careers, they are a combined 28-0 and 7-0 inside the Octagon. 

And, don't expect this one to be decided by the judges, both fighters enter Sunday night with a combined 26 finishes. 

I keep going back and forth on this one, and it will come down to who follows the gameplan better. I am leaning towards Garbrandt in this one, I think he is peaking at the right time and his overall game is a little bit more well-rounded. He has more chances to win this fight, and I think he will find a way to end it via ground and pound. 

CODY GARBRANDT via 4th Round TKO

UFC FIGHT PASS PRELIMS

ADAM MILSTEAD over CHRIS DE LA ROCHA - 1st Rd. TKO

ALJAMAIN STERLING over BRIAN CARAWAY - Unanimous Decision

UFC FOX SPORTS 1 PRELIMS

ERIK KOCH over SHANE CAMPBELL - 2nd Rd. TKO

ALBERTO UDA over JAKE COLLIER - 2nd Rd. Submission

ABEL TRUJILLO over JORDAN RINALDI - 1st Rd. KO

SARA McMANN over JESSICA EYE - Unanimous Decision

UFC FOX SPORTS 1 MAIN CARD

PAUL FELDER over JOSH BURKMAN - 3rd Rd. TKO

LORENZ LARKIN over JORGE MASVIDAL - Split Decision

CHRIS CAMOZZI over VITOR MIRANDA - 3rd Rd. TKO

RICK STORY over TAREC SAFFIEDINE - Unanimous Decision

JEREMY STEPHENS over RENAN BARAO - 1st Rd. KO

CODY GARBRANDT 0ver THOMAS ALMIEDA - 4th Rd. TKO


And, before we get out of here, if you play DraftKings, here is the lineup if you want to make that money -

Abel Trujillo ($11,200)
Paul Felder ($10,800)
Erik Koch ($9,400)
Jeremy Stephens ($9,300)
Cody Garbrandt ($9,200)

*$100 leftover