Don't answer that.
But, back to the point, this has been the most wide open field leading up to Selection Sunday.
And, in my opinion there have never been this many good bubble teams.
Now when I throw this name out here - Greg Gard - by a show of hands who can tell me who he is?
That's what I thought.
He is the interim head coach for the Wisconsin Badgers and he took over for Bo Ryan after he stepped down in mid-December. After a 2-4 start and it was really looking like they might not make the NIT, they turned it around quickly and have won seven of their last eight, including wins over Michigan State, Maryland, and Indiana. Just as long as they don't end the season on a skid they will earn their 18th consecutive NCAA Tournament bid, currently the fourth longest active streak in the country.
Alright, now it's time to zone in on the heavy hitters in college hoops, and I am going to break down the "Top 5" candidates that will be cutting down the nets in Houston, Texas.
1. NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (22-5, 11-3)
As of today, the Tar Heels are in first place of the ACC, arguably the best conference in all of college basketball. In my opinion there isn't a more talented team in the country and the scary thing is their best player, Marcus Paige, is having an off year. But, one guy who isn't? Brice Johnson. The 6'10" power forward is the front-runner to win ACC Player of the Year and he's leading the Tar Heels in points (16.9) and rebounds (10.4) and his 16 double-doubles are good for 10th best in the entire country. Back in early January against Florida State he did something no other Tar Heel has done since 1976, had a 30 point and 20 rebound game. And, for those of you wondering who the last guy was? Current Los Angeles Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak.
The Heels might have the most talented team in the country but if they want to win their sixth NCAA title they are going to need the old Marcus Paige to show up.
2. KANSAS JAYHAWKS (22-4, 10-3)
Kansas could very well be the best team in the country and if the ACC isn't the best conference it's because the Big 12 is. If the Big 12 ended today, Kansas would claim their eighth regular-season conference championship since 2007, and third in a row. The Jayhawks are the No. 1 team when it comes to RPI and they are 9-3 against teams in the RPI Top-50. We all know how much the selection committee loves RPI, so there is a good chance Kansas could be the No. 1 overall seed if they finish the season strong. This team is loaded with talent, and there might be a better backcourt in the country.
We all know good-guard play in March usually bodes well for Tournament success and with Frank Mason, Wayne Seldon, and Devonte' Graham running the backcourt for Bill Self, it could mean title No. 4 for Kansas in 2016.
3. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (21-5, 9-5)
Year in and year out Tom Izzo's team is always dangerous in March. While they are currently fourth in the Big Ten standings, once the NCAA Tournament starts they will be the most dangerous Big Ten team in the field. One thing I know is Tony Bennett and Virginia are hoping to be as far away as possible from Tom Izzo's squad when the field is announced. And, if you haven't seen my man Denzel Valentine hoop this year you are missing out. The 6'5" senior is averaging 19.7 PPG, 7.7 RPG, and 7.3 APG, and earlier in the season he became the third Michigan State player ever to have multiple triple-double games joining Magic Johnson and Draymond Green.
Not bad company.
The one area for concern leading into March for Michigan State though is a lack of depth, if they want to cut down the nets in Houston they are going to need Bryn Forbes, Matt Costello, Eron Harris, and Deyonta Davis to step their game up.
4. OKLAHOMA SOONERS (20-5, 8-5)
A month ago Oklahoma would have been the odds on favorite heading into March, but a shaky February makes sense in the way things are going this year in college hoops - unpredictable. The reason why I still have the Sooners in the "Top 5" favorites is because of one dude - Buddy Hield. He's second in the entire country averaging 25.2 points per game and he's top among all power programs. And, there might not be a more clutch player than the star from the Bahamas. I think if you polled every college coach in the country, it would be a near-unanimous choice they would want Hield taking the last shot of the game.
After starting the season 19-2, the Sooners have finally hit a skid and they have dropped three of their last five, and two of them against unranked teams. But, a big road win against a Top-10 team in West Virginia puts them right back in the thick of things for the Big 12 crown. In my opinion, this is nothing more than what most college teams go through during a long season and by the time the NCAA Tournament starts Oklahoma will be playing like they were from November until February. We know what Hield is going to do in March but it'll come down to his "buddies" if they want to win their first ever NCAA Championship.
5. KENTUCKY WILDCATS (20-6, 10-3)
A month ago it would have been laughable to put Kentucky in this group but the way John Calipari has his Wildcats playing heading into the final weeks of the season is scary. Tyler Ulis is the best player in the country no one is talking about. The 5'9" super sophomore is the best pure point guard in the game and he's playing as well as anyone right now. And, remember when I was telling you a dynamic backcourt usually bodes well in March? Kentucky passes that test with flying colors. Their freshman guard Jamal Murray might be the best pure scorer in the country not named Buddy Hield. He's leading the Wildcats averaging 19.2 points per game and earlier this season he tied John Wall's Kentucky freshman record of 35-points in a game. He's scored in double figures in 24-straight and by the time the middle of March gets here, him and Ulis are two guys I don't want to see.
THE 10 BEST OF THE REST
1. VILLANOVA (22-3, 13-1) BIG EAST
Now I know what you are thinking at home, why the hell is the No. 1 team in the country not among the Top-5? Their best win was at Providence. The top two teams they faced this year, Oklahoma and Virginia, beat them by a combined 34 points.
2. ARIZONA (22-5, 10-4) PAC 12
The biggest problem for Arizona this year has been staying healthy and lucky for Sean Miller's squad they are getting healthy as March approaches. Ryan Anderson and Kaleb Tarczewski help form one of the best frontcourts in the country and remember the name Allonzo Trier, the freshman sensation has the perfect style of game to take over in March.
3. MARYLAND (22-5, 10-4) ACC
I love the backcourt of Melo Trimble and Rasheed Sulaimon but will it be enough in March? Diamond Stone, Robert Carter, and Jake Layman help form a nice trio in the front court but this is a very young team and turnovers could be the determining factor on how far the Terps can go in March.
4. IOWA (20-6, 11-3) BIG TEN
Jared Uthoff is the most underrated player in the country. The 6'9" senior is averaging 18.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, and his 2.8 blocks per game are good for 10th best in the nation. The Hawkeyes remind me a lot of a mid-major type of team, they are loaded with upperclassmen but the one area for concern is quality wins. Outside of their two wins against Michigan State there isn't much to brag about.
Outside of Gonzaga, I don't know if there has been a more underrated program over the last decade. Chris Mack is one of the best coaches in the country and this is the best team he's had at Xavier during his seven year tenure.
6. VIRGINIA (21-5, 10-4) ACC
7. IOWA STATE (18-8, 7-6)
Iowa State reminds me a lot of Kyle Lowry, it took him awhile to figure it out, and that is the same problem the Cyclones have right now. The talent is there but they just haven't found the consistency they need to perform at a high level. The Cyclones have seven players averaging at least 9.8 points per game and there might not be a better trio in the country than Georges Niang, Monte Morris, and Jameel McKay.
8. GONZAGA (21-6, 13-3) WCC
It's hard to get a good read on Gonzaga this year because they have only played four teams in RPI Top-50 and they are 1-3 in those games. All three of those losses were by single-digits and two of them came before the New Year. This team will go as far as their 6'10" senior Kyle Wiltjer takes them. He's currently 15th in the nation averaging 21.3 points per game and the former Kentucky Wildcat could help lead Gonzaga to a nice run in March. And, Arvydas Sabonis' son, Domantas, is a PTP'er, he's averaging a double-double this year and his 11.6 rebounds per game are good for seventh best in the country.
9. DUKE (20-7, 9-5) ACC
I mean I can't leave Duke off the list right? Especially with the way their freshman sensation Brandon Ingram is playing. The 6'9" hooper reminds me a ton of Kevin Durant and there is a chance he will be the best player from the 2016 NBA Draft, sorry Ben Simmons. His ability to score the rock is off the charts and his silky smooth game, paired with Grayson Allen could take Duke a long way in March. However, this team needs Amile Jefferson to heal up before the NCAA Tournament because he is the leader on the defensive side of the floor. By the looks if it though it might be a stretch to see him back on the court this year as he's been out since fracturing his foot back in early December.
10. CALIFORNIA (18-8, 8-5) PAC 12
Last but not the least, the California Golden Bears get the final spot. This is my dark horse pick and it's all because of one guy - Jaylen Brown. The 6'7" freshman is the front-runner to be named Pac-12 Player of the Year and he's put the team on his back over the past month as they are nearing from a bubble team to a lock as March approaches. Brown is one of five players averaging at least 9.6 points per game for Cal and call me crazy but I am leaning towards Cal as being the Michigan State of 2016.
2016 NCAA CHAMPIONS: THE NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS
After Villanova was voted the No. 1 team in the country by the AP poll last Monday they became the sixth team this season to claim the top spot and if a new team earns that spot it will tie the NCAA record of seven in one season (1982-83).
And, in my opinion there have never been this many good bubble teams.
Ever.
Not even close.
In 22 days we will find out whose bubble burst and whose floats into the sky. The consensus No. 1 pick in the 2016 NBA Draft, Ben Simmons, might be playing in the N(ot) I(nvited) T(ournament) in March.
LSU is one of the most talented teams in the country but their youth has hurt them late in games. As of today, ESPN's Joe Lunardi has them as a No. 9 seed but the lack of wins (3) against Top-50 RPI teams could come back to bite them when Selection Sunday gets here. A strong finish for Simmons and the Tigers is a must if they want to play in the big boys tournament and a loss at Tennessee earlier today sure won't help.
The most prestigious college basketball team might be not be invited this year, but a lot of people thought the same thing last year. The UCLA Bruins were a preseason Top-25 team but things haven't been as easy as Steve Alford would like. Thursday's loss at home to Utah made things a lot tougher for UCLA's case for an at-large bid. They might have to win out or put all their eggs in the Pac-12 tournament basket and hope for an early Easter present if they want to play in the NCAA Tournament. But, if you have Bryce Alford on your squad you always have a chance.
Now to a team that is as talented as anyone in the country, the Florida State Seminoles. They just haven't clicked this year and things were starting to look good for Leonard Hamilton until their most recent three-game losing streak. It's kind of like Paul McCartney trying to get into Tyga's Grammy after-party, you think this won't be a problem, then next thing you know the bouncer is like sorry bruh, ain't happening. The Noles have two of the best freshmen in the country in Dwayne Bacon and Malik Beasley, and they have a nice mixture of veterans led by Devon Bookert and Xavier Rathan-Mayes, and with games at Duke, and two at home vs. Notre Dame and Syracuse still on the schedule, and the ACC Tournament, they still have time to build their resume, but they better start now.
That's what I thought.
He is the interim head coach for the Wisconsin Badgers and he took over for Bo Ryan after he stepped down in mid-December. After a 2-4 start and it was really looking like they might not make the NIT, they turned it around quickly and have won seven of their last eight, including wins over Michigan State, Maryland, and Indiana. Just as long as they don't end the season on a skid they will earn their 18th consecutive NCAA Tournament bid, currently the fourth longest active streak in the country.
Alright, now it's time to zone in on the heavy hitters in college hoops, and I am going to break down the "Top 5" candidates that will be cutting down the nets in Houston, Texas.
1. NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (22-5, 11-3)
As of today, the Tar Heels are in first place of the ACC, arguably the best conference in all of college basketball. In my opinion there isn't a more talented team in the country and the scary thing is their best player, Marcus Paige, is having an off year. But, one guy who isn't? Brice Johnson. The 6'10" power forward is the front-runner to win ACC Player of the Year and he's leading the Tar Heels in points (16.9) and rebounds (10.4) and his 16 double-doubles are good for 10th best in the entire country. Back in early January against Florida State he did something no other Tar Heel has done since 1976, had a 30 point and 20 rebound game. And, for those of you wondering who the last guy was? Current Los Angeles Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak. The Heels might have the most talented team in the country but if they want to win their sixth NCAA title they are going to need the old Marcus Paige to show up.
2. KANSAS JAYHAWKS (22-4, 10-3)
Kansas could very well be the best team in the country and if the ACC isn't the best conference it's because the Big 12 is. If the Big 12 ended today, Kansas would claim their eighth regular-season conference championship since 2007, and third in a row. The Jayhawks are the No. 1 team when it comes to RPI and they are 9-3 against teams in the RPI Top-50. We all know how much the selection committee loves RPI, so there is a good chance Kansas could be the No. 1 overall seed if they finish the season strong. This team is loaded with talent, and there might be a better backcourt in the country. We all know good-guard play in March usually bodes well for Tournament success and with Frank Mason, Wayne Seldon, and Devonte' Graham running the backcourt for Bill Self, it could mean title No. 4 for Kansas in 2016.
3. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (21-5, 9-5)
Year in and year out Tom Izzo's team is always dangerous in March. While they are currently fourth in the Big Ten standings, once the NCAA Tournament starts they will be the most dangerous Big Ten team in the field. One thing I know is Tony Bennett and Virginia are hoping to be as far away as possible from Tom Izzo's squad when the field is announced. And, if you haven't seen my man Denzel Valentine hoop this year you are missing out. The 6'5" senior is averaging 19.7 PPG, 7.7 RPG, and 7.3 APG, and earlier in the season he became the third Michigan State player ever to have multiple triple-double games joining Magic Johnson and Draymond Green.
Not bad company.
The one area for concern leading into March for Michigan State though is a lack of depth, if they want to cut down the nets in Houston they are going to need Bryn Forbes, Matt Costello, Eron Harris, and Deyonta Davis to step their game up.
4. OKLAHOMA SOONERS (20-5, 8-5)
A month ago Oklahoma would have been the odds on favorite heading into March, but a shaky February makes sense in the way things are going this year in college hoops - unpredictable. The reason why I still have the Sooners in the "Top 5" favorites is because of one dude - Buddy Hield. He's second in the entire country averaging 25.2 points per game and he's top among all power programs. And, there might not be a more clutch player than the star from the Bahamas. I think if you polled every college coach in the country, it would be a near-unanimous choice they would want Hield taking the last shot of the game. After starting the season 19-2, the Sooners have finally hit a skid and they have dropped three of their last five, and two of them against unranked teams. But, a big road win against a Top-10 team in West Virginia puts them right back in the thick of things for the Big 12 crown. In my opinion, this is nothing more than what most college teams go through during a long season and by the time the NCAA Tournament starts Oklahoma will be playing like they were from November until February. We know what Hield is going to do in March but it'll come down to his "buddies" if they want to win their first ever NCAA Championship.
5. KENTUCKY WILDCATS (20-6, 10-3)
A month ago it would have been laughable to put Kentucky in this group but the way John Calipari has his Wildcats playing heading into the final weeks of the season is scary. Tyler Ulis is the best player in the country no one is talking about. The 5'9" super sophomore is the best pure point guard in the game and he's playing as well as anyone right now. And, remember when I was telling you a dynamic backcourt usually bodes well in March? Kentucky passes that test with flying colors. Their freshman guard Jamal Murray might be the best pure scorer in the country not named Buddy Hield. He's leading the Wildcats averaging 19.2 points per game and earlier this season he tied John Wall's Kentucky freshman record of 35-points in a game. He's scored in double figures in 24-straight and by the time the middle of March gets here, him and Ulis are two guys I don't want to see. THE 10 BEST OF THE REST
1. VILLANOVA (22-3, 13-1) BIG EAST
Now I know what you are thinking at home, why the hell is the No. 1 team in the country not among the Top-5? Their best win was at Providence. The top two teams they faced this year, Oklahoma and Virginia, beat them by a combined 34 points.
2. ARIZONA (22-5, 10-4) PAC 12
The biggest problem for Arizona this year has been staying healthy and lucky for Sean Miller's squad they are getting healthy as March approaches. Ryan Anderson and Kaleb Tarczewski help form one of the best frontcourts in the country and remember the name Allonzo Trier, the freshman sensation has the perfect style of game to take over in March.
3. MARYLAND (22-5, 10-4) ACC
I love the backcourt of Melo Trimble and Rasheed Sulaimon but will it be enough in March? Diamond Stone, Robert Carter, and Jake Layman help form a nice trio in the front court but this is a very young team and turnovers could be the determining factor on how far the Terps can go in March.
4. IOWA (20-6, 11-3) BIG TEN
Jared Uthoff is the most underrated player in the country. The 6'9" senior is averaging 18.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, and his 2.8 blocks per game are good for 10th best in the nation. The Hawkeyes remind me a lot of a mid-major type of team, they are loaded with upperclassmen but the one area for concern is quality wins. Outside of their two wins against Michigan State there isn't much to brag about.
5. XAVIER (24-3, 12-3) BIG EAST
Outside of Gonzaga, I don't know if there has been a more underrated program over the last decade. Chris Mack is one of the best coaches in the country and this is the best team he's had at Xavier during his seven year tenure.
6. VIRGINIA (21-5, 10-4) ACC
The problem for Virginia over the last three years hasn't been producing in the regular season but in March. Remember when I told you they don't want to be anywhere near Michigan State when the brackets come out? Michigan State has knocked them out the past two seasons, in 2014 when they were a #1 seed and last year when they were a #2 seed. The Cavaliers have one of the best players in the country in Malcolm Brogdon and the senior guard is poised to lead them on one last ride in March.
7. IOWA STATE (18-8, 7-6)
Iowa State reminds me a lot of Kyle Lowry, it took him awhile to figure it out, and that is the same problem the Cyclones have right now. The talent is there but they just haven't found the consistency they need to perform at a high level. The Cyclones have seven players averaging at least 9.8 points per game and there might not be a better trio in the country than Georges Niang, Monte Morris, and Jameel McKay.
8. GONZAGA (21-6, 13-3) WCC
It's hard to get a good read on Gonzaga this year because they have only played four teams in RPI Top-50 and they are 1-3 in those games. All three of those losses were by single-digits and two of them came before the New Year. This team will go as far as their 6'10" senior Kyle Wiltjer takes them. He's currently 15th in the nation averaging 21.3 points per game and the former Kentucky Wildcat could help lead Gonzaga to a nice run in March. And, Arvydas Sabonis' son, Domantas, is a PTP'er, he's averaging a double-double this year and his 11.6 rebounds per game are good for seventh best in the country.
9. DUKE (20-7, 9-5) ACC
I mean I can't leave Duke off the list right? Especially with the way their freshman sensation Brandon Ingram is playing. The 6'9" hooper reminds me a ton of Kevin Durant and there is a chance he will be the best player from the 2016 NBA Draft, sorry Ben Simmons. His ability to score the rock is off the charts and his silky smooth game, paired with Grayson Allen could take Duke a long way in March. However, this team needs Amile Jefferson to heal up before the NCAA Tournament because he is the leader on the defensive side of the floor. By the looks if it though it might be a stretch to see him back on the court this year as he's been out since fracturing his foot back in early December.
10. CALIFORNIA (18-8, 8-5) PAC 12
Last but not the least, the California Golden Bears get the final spot. This is my dark horse pick and it's all because of one guy - Jaylen Brown. The 6'7" freshman is the front-runner to be named Pac-12 Player of the Year and he's put the team on his back over the past month as they are nearing from a bubble team to a lock as March approaches. Brown is one of five players averaging at least 9.6 points per game for Cal and call me crazy but I am leaning towards Cal as being the Michigan State of 2016.
Alright baby, can I get a drum roll please, it's prediction time!!!
2016 NCAA CHAMPIONS: THE NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS
